Текст книги "Implosion. The end of Russia and what it means for America"

Автор книги: Ilan Berman

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

When I began my career in foreign policy nearly a decade and a half ago, I was supposed to do so as a Russia “hand.” I had focused on Middle Eastern affairs in college and immersed myself in the study of terrorism and radical Islam in graduate school. But I was also the child of Soviet refuseniksand a native Russian speaker. So when, after a brief stint in the counterterrorism field, I was hired away by the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC) to head up its analytical work on Russia, it seemed like a logical move.

That was shortly before September 11, 2001, and life quickly intervened. More than a dozen years of work on the Middle East, radical Islam, and Iran followed, spawning countless articles, op-eds, and media appearances, as well as two books on Mideast affairs ( Tehran Rising, published in 2005, and subsequently 2009’s Winning The Long War). But Russia has never been far from my thoughts, for both personal and practical reasons. With this book, I finally have the chance to turn to the subject in earnest.

That I have been able to do so is a credit to AFPC president Herman Pirchner, who has served as my mentor for more than a decade. Time and again, he has tirelessly encouraged my curiosity about the Russian state and its geopolitical direction. And in his own understated way, Herman has been instrumental in nudging this project along (including by scheduling a fact-finding mission to Russia’s Volga region in the dead of winter several years ago). For all that, and for his continued friendship, I am tremendously grateful.

But this work quite simply would not have been possible without the assistance of a cadre of talented young scholars, all of whom lent their considerable research skills to the cause. Margot Van Loon, Heather Stetten, Cory Bender, Caitlyn McAllister, Lisa Aronson, Isaac Medina, and a host of others helped me extensively in compiling, and then deciphering, veritable mountains of data relating to Russian foreign policy and domestic trends. To the extent that this volume breaks new ground, they deserve the lion’s share of the credit. Any errors that this book may contain, however, are mine and mine alone.

Thanks also go to my colleagues at AFPC—Rich Harrison, Jeff Smith, Annie Swingen, and Cheri Ady—for their friendship, and for making every day at the office an adventure. Liz Wood, AFPC’s in-house editor, deserves gratitude as well for helping to refine my writing and polish my language, as she has on so many other occasions. The final product also benefited enormously from the insights of several Russia experts, including Gordon Hahn, Stephen Blank, and Wayne Merry, who lent their eyes, ears, and expertise to making sure that I got both the style and the substance of this work right.

Most of all, I owe an enormous debt of gratitude to my wonderful wife, Hillary, and to my beautiful children, Mark and Lauren. Their patience, love, and support sustained me through this project, as it always does. I hope that this book gives them a better understanding of the country our family once called home, and what the future could hold in store for it.

Ilan Berman

Washington, D.C.

April 2013

APPENDIX ONE

THE FOUNDATIONS OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION POLICY IN THE ARCTIC UNTIL 2020 AND BEYOND

ISSUED SEPTEMBER 18, 2008*

In late March 2009, the Russian government publicly released the full text of its new Arctic strategy. That document, first issued in September 2008, lays out a dramatic expansion of official Russian sovereign interests in what was previously agreed-upon as part of the so-called “global commons.” It also provides a roadmap for how Moscow will seek to rewrite the regional legal and political order in the years ahead. The translation has been reproduced below.

I. GENERAL PROVISIONS

1.Current principles determine the main goals, main challenges, strategic priorities, and mechanisms for implementing the state policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic, as well as the means for strategic planning of the socioeconomic development of Russian Federation’s Arctic zone and the maintenance of national security of the Russian Federation.

2.Based on current principles, the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is understood as the part of the Arctic which includes, either fully or partially, the territories of the Republic of Saha (Yakutiya), Murmansk and Arkhangelsk regions, Krasnoyarsk Krai, Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets, and Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, as defined by the decision of the Government Commission on Arctic Issues under the Council of Ministers of the U.S.S.R. on April 22, 1989, as well as landmasses and islands included in the Decision of the Presidium of the Central Executive Committee of the U.S.S.R. on April 15, 1926, in its “declaration of landmasses and islands in the Arctic Ocean as territories of the USSR,” and water bodies attached to these territories, landmasses, and islands, territorial sea, exclusive economic zone, and continental shelf of the Russian Federation, inside which Russia retains sovereign rights and jurisdiction, in accordance with international law. The borders of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation can be defined in accordance to the normative legal acts of the Russian Federation, as well as by the norms of international contracts and agreements of which the Russian Federation is a participant.

3.The special features of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, which influence the formation of governmental policy in the Arctic, include the following:

a)extreme climate conditions, including constant ice cover or drifting ice masses in the Arctic seas;

b)the unique character of economic and industrial development of the territory and low population density;

c)the distance from major industrial centers, high resource capacity, and dependence of the private and public sectors on the delivery of energy and goods from other regions within Russia;

d)low levels of stability of ecological systems, which establish biological balance and climate of the Earth, and their dependence on the smallest anthropogenic effects.

II. NATIONAL INTERESTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION IN THE ARCTIC

4.The main national interests of the Russian Federation in the Arctic are:

a)the utilization of the Russian Federation’s Arctic zone as a national strategic resource base capable of fulfilling the socioeconomic tasks associated with national growth;

b)the preservation of the Arctic as a zone of peace and cooperation;

c)the protection of the Arctic’s unique ecological system;

d)the use of the North Sea passage as a unified transportation link connecting Russia to the Arctic.

5.National interests determine the main goals, main challenges and strategic priorities of Russia’s governmental policy in the Arctic. The realization of the Russian Federation’s national interests in the Arctic is provided for by government institutions together with institutions of the civil society in strict accordance with the law of the Russian Federation and Russia’s international contracts.

III. MAIN GOALS AND STRATEGIC PRIORITIES OF RUSSIAN STATE POLICY IN THE ARCTIC

6.The main goals of the Russian Federation’s official state policy in the Arctic are:

a)in the sphere of socioeconomic development, to expand the resource base of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, which is capable in large part of fulfilling Russia’s needs for hydrocarbon resources, aqueous biological resources, and other forms of strategic raw material;

b)in the sphere of national security, the protection and defense of the national boundary of the Russian Federation, which lies in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, and the provision of a favorable operating environment in the Arctic zone for the Russian Federation, including the preservation of a basic fighting capability of general purpose units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, as well as other troops and military formations in that region;

c)in the sphere of ecological protection, the preservation and protection of the natural ecosystem of the Arctic, and the mitigation of the ecological consequences of increased economic activity and global climate change;

d)in the sphere of information technology and telecommunications, the formation of a unified information space in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation;

e)in the sphere of international cooperation, guaranteeing mutually beneficial bilateral and multilateral cooperation between the Russian Federation and other Arctic states on the basis of international treaties and agreements to which the Russian Federation is a signatory.

7.The main strategic priorities of the Russian Federation’s official state policy in the Arctic are:

a)the active interaction of the Russian Federation with other Arctic states for the purposes of delineating maritime boundaries on the basis of international legal norms and cooperative agreements, taking into account the national interests of the Russian Federation;

b)the increase in efforts of Arctic states to create a unified regional system of search and rescue, as well as prevention of technical accidents and the mitigation of their consequences, including the coordination of rescue forces;

c)the strengthening of Russia’s relations with other Arctic states, both bilateral and multilateral, including the Arctic Council and the Barents Euro-Arctic Region, by promoting greater economic, scientific, technological, and cultural interaction, as well as cooperation in the field of border control and in the areas of natural resources and ecosystem preservation in the Arctic;

d)assistance in the creation and use of transit and cross-polar aerial routes in the Arctic, as well as in the use of the North Sea passage for international maritime navigation within the jurisdiction of Russian Federation and in accordance to Russia’s international agreements;

e)the promotion of participation of Russian state organizations and public organizations in the activities of international forums dedicated to the Arctic, including inter-parliamentary cooperation within the Russia-EU partnership;

f)the delineation of the maritime territory of the Arctic Ocean and securing a mutually beneficial presence for the Russian Federation on the Spitsbergen peninsula;

g)the improvement in state management of the socioeconomic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, including the expansion of applied scientific research in the Arctic;

h)an improvement in the quality of life of the indigenous population of the Arctic and the social conditions of economic development in the Arctic;

i)the development of the resource base of the Russian Federation’s Arctic zone through the use of promising technologies;

j)the modernization and development of the transportation infrastructure and fishing industry of the Russian Federation’s Arctic zone.

IV. MAIN CHALLENGES AND MEANS FOR IMPLEMENTING RUSSIAN STATE POLICY IN THE ARCTIC

8.The main goals of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic are achieved by solving the following basic problems:

a)in the area of socioeconomic development it is necessary:

–to finalize the collection of geological, geophysical, hydrographical, and cartographical data necessary for the delineation of the outer border of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation;

–to provide for an increase in the reserves of natural resources originating in Arctic waters, partially by launching state programs for investigating and integrating the continental shelf of the Russian Federation, as well as by initiating the process of mastering the natural gas and oil reserves in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation;

–to develop and introduce new technologies designed to acquire sea minerals and aqueous natural resources under Arctic conditions, including in ice-covered regions, and to create a base for aviation technology and fishing vessels, as well as the necessary infrastructure for work under Arctic conditions;

–to optimize the economic mechanisms of the “Northern Delivery” project, by utilizing renewable and alternative sources of energy, including local sources, and by reconstructing and modernizing energy production;

–to promote the restructuring of North Sea Passage traffic, by means of state support for the production of icebreaking, emergency, rescue and support vessels, as well as coastal infrastructure;

–to establish a system of maritime navigation security and transportation control in regions of intense naval traffic, including through the creation of a set of hydro-meteorological and navigational provisions for the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation;

–to create a system of complex security for the defense of the territories, population, and objects in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation critically vital to Russian national security from threats of natural and technical character.

The primary means for implementing state policy in the area of socioeconomic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation are:

–government support for industrial subjects active in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, specifically in the areas of hydrocarbon and other natural resources, by the means of utilizing innovative technology, developing transportation and energy infrastructure, improving customs and tax regulation;

–stimulating the expansion and completion of new Arctic assimilation projects by co-financing them with the aid of various levels of the Russian budget system and outside resources, and by guaranteeing state payment for labor, including research and exploration;

–modernization of social infrastructure, including educational facilities and medical facilities, as well as construction of housing and national projects of high priority;

–provision of training for specialists for work in Arctic conditions, and of assurance of government aid and compensation for persons working and living in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation;

–provision of accessible and quality medical care for all peoples living and working in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, partially by expanding and modernizing first-aid systems;

–improvement of educational programs for the native population of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, especially by preparing children for life in a modern society with the ability to cope with extreme weather conditions, including equipping educational facilities and remote residential areas with technology necessary for distance learning;

–guaranteeing the implementation of nature preservation techniques and ecologically safe tourism in the areas of residence of native peoples, as well as the preservation of their culture, language, and tradition.

b)in the sphere of military security, defense, and protection of the Russian border in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation it is necessary to do the following:

–to create general purpose military formations drawn from the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, as well as other troops and military formations (most importantly, border units) in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, capable of ensuring security under various military and political circumstances;

–to optimize the complex system of control over the situation in the Arctic, including border control at the entry points to the Russian Federation, the introduction of an administrative border regime in the Arctic Zone, and technical control over straits, river mouths, estuaries on the North Sea Passage;

–improve the capabilities of the border troops to match the sophistication of potential threats to Russian national security in the Arctic.

The main means of implementing state policy in the area of military security, protection of territorial integrity and border of the Russian Federation in the Arctic are the following:

–the creation of an active, functioning system of coastal security within the Federal Security Service (FSB) in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, and an increase in the effectiveness of cooperation with the border guard of neighboring states on the issues of maritime terrorism, contraband, illegal migration, and the protection of sea-based resources;

–the development of border infrastructure along the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, and re-equipment of its border guard;

–the creation of an administrative system dealing with the maritime situation in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, and strengthening of governmental control over economic activity in the Russian Arctic zone.

c)in the area of ecological security, it is necessary to do the following:

–to guarantee the preservation of biological diversity of Arctic flora and fauna, partially by expanding the network of natural preserves, in order to preserve the Arctic ecosystem in the face of expanding economic and industrial activities and climate change;

–to utilize nuclear-powered vessels during their established periods of operation.

The main means for implementing official state policy in the area of ecological security in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation are:

–the establishment of special rules for the exploitation of natural resources and environmental protection, including the monitoring of pollution, in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation;

–the re-cultivation of natural landscapes, the utilization of toxic waste abatement, and the establishment of biochemical safeguards, especially in densely-populated areas.

d)in the area of informational technology, it is necessary:

–to introduce modern information and telecommunication technology (including mobile) for the purposes of broadcasting, navigation (both of sea vessels and airplanes), remote sensing of the Earth, monitoring the glacial layer, as well as hydro-meteorological and hydrographic provisions and systems for scientific research;

–to create a reliable system for navigation, hydro-meteorological and informational services, guaranteeing effective control over economic, military, and ecologic activity in the Arctic, as well as predicting catastrophic situations, mitigating damage in case of their occurrence, partially by utilizing the global satellite navigation system GLONASS.

The main means for implementing official state policy in the area of information technology and communication in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation must be directed towards production and mass usage of innovative technologies, including cosmic means and multi-process universal networks.

e)in the area of science and technology, it is necessary:

–to introduce innovative technologies, including those used for clearing the territories of islands, coastal zones, and the waters of the Arctic from anthropogenic pollution, as well as to develop materials and products suitable for the environmental conditions of the Arctic;

–to guarantee the creation of a government program for naval research, overseeing deepwater and hydronautics, to include technical instruments suitable for conducting polar research.

The main means for implementing official state policy in the area of scientific research in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation are:

–establishing long-term perspectives and trends for various types of activity in the Arctic;

–studying dangerous and hazardous natural occurrences in the region, as well as developing and implementing innovative technologies and methods to predict the changing climate;

–forecasting and analyzing the consequences of global climate change taking place in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation due to naturally-occurring factors, over the medium and long term, in the middle-term and long-term perspectives, including on the stability of infrastructure;

–conducting research on the history, culture, and economics of the region, as well as law enforcement activity in the Arctic;

–studying the effects of hazardous factors on the health of residents, the establishment of standards for medical care of the Arctic population, and the creation of a set of measures aimed at improving the wellbeing of the ecosystem and local residents.

9.The solution to the main tasks of official Russian state policy in the Arctic is implemented through strategic planning for the socioeconomic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, and providing for Russian national security:

a)the development and implementation of a strategy for the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation aimed at protecting national security;

b)the creation of a monitoring system, including through the improvement of informational and statistical observation, for tracking potential national security threats in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation;

c)the preparation of normative legal assessments to clarify the geographic boundaries of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, in particular its southern zone, along with a list and status of all local governmental bodies located within each zone;

d)an increase in the effectiveness of administration of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.

V. MAIN MECHANISMS FOR IMPLEMENTING OFFICIAL RUSSIAN STATE POLICY IN THE ARCTIC

10.The state policy of the Russian Federation in the Arctic is carried out by the relevant federal organs of the executive branch, governmental organs of the Russian Federation, organs of local authorities, and commercial and non-commercial organizations active within the public-private partnership framework, as well as within the framework of Russian cooperation with other states and international organizations, including:

a)improvement, taking into consideration the national interests of Russia and the specific character of the region, of legislation in the areas of socioeconomic development, environmental protection, military security, border protection, scientific research and international cooperation in the Arctic on the basis of international legal norms and the Russian Federation’s international responsibilities;

b)development and implementation of special programs, financed by the various levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation and other extra-budgetary sources;

c)introduction of strategies aimed at developing territorial planning schemes and socioeconomic development programs for subjects of the Russian Federation;

d)elaboration by the means of mass media of questions dealing with the national interests of the Russian Federation in the Arctic, including organizing exhibitions, conferences, “roundtable” meetings dedicated to Russian explorers of the Arctic, all with the aim of creating a positive image of Russia;

e)organization of systematic monitoring and analysis of Russian state policy implementation in the Arctic.

VI. IMPLEMENTATION OF RUSSIAN STATE POLICY IN THE ARCTIC

11.Current principles will be achieved in several steps:

a)during the first stage (2008–2010), the following must be accomplished:

–conducting geologic, geophysical, hydrographic, cartographic, and other research for the purpose of preparing materials for delineating the border of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation;

–expansion of possibilities for international cooperation, partially for effective utilization of natural resources of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation;

–realization of goal-based programs, financed by means of various budgets of the Russian Federation as well as extra-budgetary sources, including the creation of a government program dedicated to developing the Arctic zone until the year 2020, within which high-tech energy production and fishing clusters, as well as special economic zones, will be created;

–realization of promising public-private sector investment projects related to the strategic development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.

b)during the second stage (2011–2015), the following must be accomplished:

–delineation of the internationally-recognized exterior border of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, and realization on this basis of the competitive advantages of Russia in the extraction and delivery of energy resources;

–structural reconstruction of the economy in the Arctic zone by expanding the mineral and raw-materials base and utilizing sea-based biological resources of the region;

–formation and development of infrastructure and administration systems for effective communication along the North Sea Passage and for improvement of Eurasian transit paths;

–completion of a single informational space for the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation.

c)during the third stage (2016–2020), it will be necessary to establish the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation as a leading strategic and resource base for Russia. Overall, in the mid-term, the implementation of official policy will allow the Russian Federation to maintain its status as a leading Arctic power. In the long run, it is necessary to utilize Russia’s comparative advantage to strengthen its position in the Arctic, enhance international security, and maintain peace and stability in the region.

* Translated from the Russian by Maxim Rusnak and Ilan Berman.