Текст книги "2312"

Автор книги: Kim Stanley Robinson

Соавторы: Kim Stanley Robinson
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boreal forest (conifers); temperate forest (hardwoods or mixed hardwoods and conifers); tropical forest; desert; the alpine zone; grassland; tundra; and chaparral, sometimes called shrubland

these are the principal Terran biomes

cities; villages; croplands; rangelands; forests; and wildlands

these are the principal Terran human-use patterns anthromes

mix and match the above, and you get the 825 eco-regions of Earth

450 on land, 229 marine

65 percent of these now exist only off-planet

take an x-y graph to chart a Whittaker biome diagram, with precipitation marked vertically and temperature horizontally. Biomes can be plotted on this graph and will make a clearly shaped map of what kind of biome turns up in what kind of conditions. Left is hotter, right colder; wet is higher, dry lower; and thus the most general version is as follows:

Tropical rain forest

Tropical seasonal forest

Temperate rain forest

Savanna

Temperate deciduous forest

Taiga

Subtropical desert

Temperate grassland

desert Tundra

The classifications can be much elaborated. The 450 named terrestrial eco-regions divide biomes by not only precipitation and temperature, but also combinations of latitude, altitude, geography, geology, and other factors

eco-regions themselves can be usefully divided into microenvironments as small as a hectare

34,850 known species went extinct between 1900 and 2100. It was, and remains ongoing, the sixth great mass extinction in Earth’s history

no extinctions from this point onward are inevitable (this has always been true, however)

19,340 terraria are known to exist in the solar system. Approximately 70 percent of these function as zoo worlds, either dedicated to sustaining an eco-region’s suite of animals and plants, or else to creating new combinations of suites, called Ascensions

92 percent of mammal species are now endangered or gone entirely from Earth and live mainly in their off-planet terraria

space: the zoo, the

inoculant

SWAN AND THE INSPECTOR

There are two problems in dealing with the Terminator incident,” Inspector Genette said to Swan one evening as they flew out to the asteroid belt. They were traveling with a little group from Interplan and Terminator, but often found themselves the last two in the galley at the end of an evening. Swan liked that; the inspector would sit right on the table while eating, on a plush brought for the purpose, and afterward lounge there on one elbow with a drink, so that they spoke eye to eye. It was a little like talking to a cat.

“Only two?” she said.

“Two. First, who did it, and second, how we can find and catch this agent without giving more people the idea of doing it. The so-called copycat problem, and more generally, the problem of preventing any kind of repetition of this attack. That I consider to be the more difficult problem of the two.”

“What about howit was done?” Swan asked. “Isn’t that a problem too?”

“I know how it happened,” the inspector said easily.

“You do?”

“I think so. It’s the only way it could have happened, I think, and so there you have it. No matter how implausible, as the line has it, although in this case it’s not implausible at all. But I must confess to you, I don’t want to say more about it when we are both being recorded by our qubes.” Genette raised a wrist and indicated the thick, almost cubical little wristpad that contained Passepartout. “You have your qube recording always, I assume?”

“No.”

“But often?”

“Yes, I suppose so. Like anyone else.”

“Well, in any case I want to see some things in the belt before I will be sure of my hypothesis. So we’ll talk about this more when we’re out there. But I want you to think about the second problem; assuming we catch a perpetrator and explain the deed, perhaps in a prosecution—how are we going to keep someone else from doing it? This is where I think you could help me.”

They were traveling in the terrarium Moldava, which ran in an Aldrin cycle that would take them out to Vesta in eight days. The interior of the Moldavawas given over to growing wheat, and many of the people traveling in it congregated after their day’s labor in the fields at a resort on high ground near the bow, set on a broad hilltop, overlooking and then looking up at the upcurve of a big patchwork pattern of fields, different green and gold textures created by the many different strains being grown. It was like a quilter’s version of heaven.

Swan spent much of her time talking to the local ecologists, who had lots of little wheat disease problems they wanted to discuss. Inspector Jean stayed in the Interplan rooms and, as they passed Mars, spent time calling ahead to people in the terraria clustered around Vesta. At the ends of these days Swan would meet with the Interplan group to eat, then talk late with the inspector. Sometimes she talked about her daytime work. The locals were trying out wheat varieties that shed water from the seed heads better, and were exploring the genetic creation of microscopic “drip tips” like those seen in the macro world of tropical leaves, where the drip tips were long tips on the leaves that allowed water to break its surface tension and run away. “I want to have drip tips in my brain,” she said. “I don’t want to hold on to anything that will hurt me.”

“I wish you luck with that,” the little inspector said politely, staying focused on the meal, and eating a lot for such a small person.

A few days later they came to the Vesta Zone, one of the crowded areas of the asteroid belt. During the Accelerando many terraria had relocated near each other, creating something like communities, and the Vesta Zone was among the largest of these. Moldavareleased a ferry with the Interplan team on it, and when the ferry had decelerated and was near Vesta, they transferred again, this time to an Interplan ship with an Interplan crew.

This was an impressively fast little spaceship named Swift Justice, and in short order they were moving against the flow of the great current of asteroids, stopping once or twice at little rocks for the inspector to talk with people. No explanation for these conversations was offered, and Swan held off asking, while they visited the Orinoco Fantastico, the Crimea, the Oro Valley, Irrawady 14, Trieste, Kampuchea, the John Muir, and the Winnipeg, after which she just had to ask.

“All these little worlds had recent perturbations in their orbits,” the inspector explained, “and I wanted to ask if they had explanations for them.”

“And had they?”

“There were some abrupt departures from the Vesta Zone, apparently, and people think those threw the neighbors off course.”

Vesta itself proved to be very substantial for an asteroid—six hundred kilometers in diameter, roughly spherical, and entirely tented, which made it one of the biggest examples of the paraterraforming method called bubble-wrapping. Usually tents covered only parts of a moon, like the older domes; they were the most common structures on Callisto and Ganymede and Luna, but those moons were all so big that covering them entirely hadn’t even been considered. To cover a little moon with a tentlike bubble represented the next stage, and a viable outie option to the hollowed-out innie worlds. Swan supposed that Terminator itself was a case of paraterraforming, though she was not used to thinking of it that way and had a prejudice against outies in the asteroid belt as being overexposed and low-g, compared to burrowing into a rock and spinning it.

But now, as she regarded Vesta from a short distance out, it looked good. It was a place that would have weather and a sky (the tenting was located two kilometers above the surface), and Pauline told her the Vestans had established boreal forests, alpine ranges, tundra, grassland, and lots of cold desert. All that would be in very low g, which meant everyone would be flying and dancing around a lot, in a puffy, almost floating landscape. Not such a bad idea. They even had an immense mountain.

So Swan was interested to visit Vesta, but Genette had a different destination in mind, and after a few more Interplan people joined them, they headed to a nearby terrarium called Yggdrasil.

As they approached YggdrasilSwan saw it was yet another potato asteroid, in this case dark and unspinning. “It’s abandoned,” the inspector explained. “A cold case.”

In the hopper’s lock Swan floated to the suit rack with a graceful little plié, suited up, then followed Genette and several Interplan investigators out the outer lock door into the void.

Yggdrasilhad been a standard innie, perhaps thirty kilometers long. They entered it by way of a big hole left in the stern; the mass driver had been removed. They jetted in gently, using their suits’ thrusters to keep them upright. Flowing forward side by side, they looked like a reversal of one of those pharaonic statue pairs in which the sister-wife is knee-high to the monarch.

Inside they jetted to a halt. The interior of the asteroid was a pure black, dotted with a few distant reflections of their headlamp beams. Swan had been in many a terrarium under construction, but this was not like those. Genette tossed ahead a bright lamp, jetted briefly to counteract the toss. The pinpoint flare floated forward through the empty space, illuminating the cylinder quite distinctly.

Swan spun a little under the force of her own looking around. So dim, so abandoned; she spun in some gust of emotion that perhaps came from her poor Terminator: fist to her faceplate, suddenly she heard herself moaning.

“Yes,” the little silver figure floating by her said. “There was a pressure failure here, with no warning. This was a chondrite and water-ice conglomerate asteroid, very common. The accident review found a small meteorite had by chance hit an undetected seam of ice in the cylinder wall, vaporizing it and depressurizing the interior catastrophically. It wasn’t the first time something like that had happened, although in this case the rock readers had given it a triple A rating. Usually the ones that have cracked have been Bs or Cs, and were occupied unwisely. So I’ve been reanalyzing old accidents, looking for certain flags, and decided I wanted to have a look at this one. Mainly at the outside, but first I wanted to check the inside.”

“A lot of people died?”

“Yes, around three thousand. It happened very fast. Some people were in buildings with shelters they got to in time, and others were near spacesuits, or air locks. Other than them, the whole city-state died. The survivors decided to leave it empty as a memorial.”

“So this is like a cemetery now.”

“Yes. There’s a memorial in here somewhere, I think on the other side. I want to take a look at the inner surface of the break.”

The inspector consulted with Passepartout, then led Swan through the interior space to a boulevard on the other side of the cylinder. The neighborhood here had a Parisian scale, with wide streets running between trapezoidal housing blocks four and five stories tall.

They hovered over an area of crumpled pavements and tilted buildings, which resembled old photos of earthquake-damaged areas on Earth. It was strange how still it was.

“Aren’t there enough nickel-iron asteroids around that no one needs to hollow a conglomerate?” Swan asked.

“You would think so. But they hollowed out a few of these and found they worked fine. Keep the walls thick enough and the rotation and interior air pressure are nowhere near enough to test them. They should work and they do. But this one broke. A little meteor hit just the wrong spot.”

They floated over an area where the intense buckling had left plates of white concrete thrown up and out, leaving a long gash between them. The gash was open to space; Swan could see stars through it.

They left the devastated street and floated back out of the asteroid. Outside they toed and jetted over the surface of the rock, negotiating the typical asteroid mini-g. Swan had spent some time in this g during her terrarium-building days, and she saw that the inspector was expert in it, which of course made sense for someone based in the asteroid belt.

When they got to the outside location of the open seam, they found several of the Interplan team already at work around it. Genette made a few balletic leaps, twisting in descent to float down headfirst, taking photos of the inside of the rupture. Close inspection of a few small pits to each side was accomplished by way of one-handed handstands, faceplate centimeters from the rock.

After a while: “I think I’ve got what I need.”

They floated there, watching the others continue to work. Genette said, “You have a qube there in your skull, isn’t that right?”

“Yes. Pauline, say hello to Inspector Genette.”

“Hello to Inspector Genette.”

“Can you turn it off?” the inspector asked.

“Yes, of course. Will you be turning off yours?”

“Yes. If that is indeed what really happens when we turn them off.” Through the faceplates Swan could see the inspector’s ironic smile. “All right, Passepartout has been put to sleep. Has Pauline?”

Swan had indeed pressed the pad under the skin on the right side of her neck. “Yes.”

“Very good. All right, now we can talk a little more openly. Tell me, when your qube is on, is it recording what you hear and see?”

“Normally, yes. Of course.”

“And does it have direct contact with any other qubes?”

“Direct contact? Do you mean quantum entanglement?”

“No, no. Decoherence makes that impossible, we are told. I only mean radio contact.”

“Well, Pauline has a radio receiver and transmitter, but I select what goes in and out.”

“Can you be sure of that?”

“Yes, I think so. I set the tasks and she does them. I can check everything she’s done in her records.”

The little silver figure was shaking its head dubiously.

“Isn’t it the same for you?” Swan asked.

“I think so,” Genette said. “I’m just not so sure about all the qubes that are not Passepartout.”

“Why? Do you think qubes may be involved with what happened here? Or on Mercury?”

“Yes.”

Swan stared in surprise at what seemed to be a big spacesuited doll floating beside her, feeling a little afraid of it. Its voice was in her ear because of her helmet mike, speaking from almost within her, much as Pauline did. A clear high countertenor, pleasant and amused.

“There are quite a few little crater pits to each side of the break here. Like that one…” Genette pointed with a forefinger, and a green laser dot appeared on the rim of a small pit, quickly circled the rim, then fixed at its center. “See that? And then that?” Circling another one. They were very small. “These are fresh enough that they may have happened during or after the break.”

“So, ejecta?”

“No. Gravity here is so slight, the ejecta seldom come back. If anything did, it would almost dock. These pits are deeper.”

Swan nodded. The asteroid’s lumpy surface had many rocks lying loosely on it. “So what did the accident report call these craters?”

“Anomalies. They speculated they might be pit ruptures, where ice deposits melted at the heat of impact. Could be. But I take it you have looked at the accident report for Terminator?”

“Yes.”

“Do you remember there were anomalies there too? Whatever struck the tracks didn’t hit cleanly. There are outlier craters, very small, that were not there before the event. Now, on Mercury they could be ejecta coming back down, I grant you that—”

“Couldn’t the impactor have broken up coming in?”

“But that usually happens where there’s an atmosphere heating and slowing it.”

“Couldn’t Mercury’s gravity do it?”

“That effect would be negligible.”

“I don’t know, so maybe it didn’t break up.”

The little figure nodded. “Yes, that’s right.”

“What do you mean?”

“It didn’t break up. In fact, it came together.”

“What do you mean?”

“I mean it was never comglomerated, until the very last moment. That’s why none of the detection systems on Mercury saw it coming. They should have seen it, it had to come from somewhere, and yet it was not detected by the surveillance systems. So to me this indicates an MDL problem. Minimum detection limit. Because there is always a minimum limit of detection, either inherent to the detection method, or else artificially set higher than the actual minimum.”

“Why do that?”

“Usually to keep warnings from going off all the time when there isn’t really any danger.”

“Ah.”

“So, each system is different, but in the Mercurial defense apparatus, what they call the method reporting level is almost equivalent to the system’s method detection limit. In other words they set their reporting level at twice the detection level, which is six or seven times the standard deviation in their measurement variability. It’s a typical setting to make people comfortable they’ll generate both the fewest false negatives and the fewest false positives.

“So, but consider what then lies below that reporting level. Basically, only very little rocks—pebbles, well less than a kilogram each. But if there were a lot of them, and they converged only at the last second, with each one coming in from a different quadrant of the sky, and at a different speed, but timed such that they all arrived at the same spot, at the same time… Then they would just be little pebbles, until the last second. They could have been tossed from the far side of the solar system, maybe, and over a number of years, maybe. And yet even so, if thrown correctly, eventually they make their rendezvous. Many thousands of them, let us say.”

“So, a kind of smart mob.”

“But not even smart. Just rocks.”

“Could that work? I mean, could anything calculate how hard to throw them, and on what trajectory?”

“A qube could. With enough of the solar system’s masses identified as to locations and trajectory, and enough calculating power, it can be done. I asked Passepartout to do it—to calculate an orbit for something like a ball bearing or a boccino, thrown from the asteroid belt to hit a particular target on Mercury. It didn’t take long.”

“But could the throws be made? I mean, would it be possible to build a launcher that would launch them with the necessary precision?”

“Passepartout said there are machines in existence with tolerances two or three magnitudes more precise than would be necessary. One would only need a steady launch platform. The stabler the better, in creating consistency.”

“That’s quite a shot,” Swan said. “How many masses get included in the trajectory calculation?”

“I think Passepartout included the heaviest ten million objects in the solar system.”

“And we know where all those are?”

“Yes. Which is to say the AIs know where they are. And all the biggest terraria and spaceships conform to itineraries set years in advance. As for the calculations, it takes a qube to be able to do it in a reasonable amount of time, meaning fast enough to use it for real-time launch instructions.”

“How long does it take?”

“For a qube similar to Passepartout, three seconds. For conventional AIs, about a year per pebble, which of course would render the method inoperable. You have to have quantum computing to be able to do it.”

Swan was feeling sick to her stomach, as if she were back in the utilidor. “So ten thousand little rocks thrown downsystem, over a matter of months or years, with such directions and velocities that they all arrive at one spot at the same time.”

“Yes. And a few stochastic gravitational fluctuations no doubt cause a little bit of scatter at the end. Indeed when that happens, those pebbles must usually miss entirely.”

“But some just barely miss.”

“Exactly. Like these little pits we see. Caused perhaps by a spaceship that changed flight plans, or the like. So maybe one or two percent of the pebbles experience a clinamen of this sort, or so Passepartout guesses.”

Now the wrench in her gut was getting severe. “So someone is doing this on purpose.” She waved at the abandoned terrarium.

“That’s right. And also, a qube has to be involved.”

“Shit.” She put an arm across her stomach. “But how… how could someone…”

The inspector put a little hand to her arm. Ygassdrilfloated under them, cold and dead. A gray potato. “Let’s get back to the Justice.”

Back inside the Interplan hopper, after they had eaten a meal, Swan stayed up late in the galley, and again the inspector did too.

Swan, who had not been able to stop thinking about the day’s revelations, said, “So, all this means that whoever—”

Genette raised both hands and stopped her. “Qubes off again, please.”

After they had both turned off the devices, she continued: “That means whoever did this could have done it years ago.”

“Or at least quite some time ago, yes. Some stretch of time.”

“And there wasn’t a single launch site.”

“No. But maybe there is still the launch mechanism. Their gun, or catapult, or whatever it was, would have to be a very precise instrument. A particularly fine bit of manufacturing. The tolerances Passepartout suggested were really quite fine, requiring molecular printers and so forth. We might be able to find the factory that made something so particular—we’re looking into that. And then, who might have ordered it.”

“What else?” Swan asked.

“We are looking for the program for the factory, and the design of the instrument. Its printing instructions. Also the orbital program needed to make the calculations. Qubes don’t make that kind of thing up without being asked to do it—or so we have been assuming until now. The qube that did it would have that action recorded in it, as I understand it. And so the program is likely to still exist somewhere. And there are still only a finite number of factories making qubes.”

“Couldn’t they have destroyed their qube when they were done using it?”

“Yes. But there’s no reason to assume they’re done.”

This was a chilling thought.

“We must look for the qube, the orbit program, the factory program, also the factory, and the launcher itself, and whatever the launch platform was.”

Swan frowned. “All those could be destroyed, or cleaned pretty clean.”

“It’s true. You see the nature of the problem very quickly. Even so, this investigation has to turn into a check of the records, a kind of bookkeepers’ search. As our work so often becomes.” Another ironic smile: “It is not often as dramatic as is sometimes portrayed.”

“That’s fine. But while you’re doing that, what else can we do? What can I do?”

“You can look at the other end of the problem. And I will join you in that.”

“The other end?”

“The motive.”

“But how would you determine that? And having done so, how would you locate it? Doing something like this is so sick that it makes me sick to think about it. It’s evil.”

“Evil!”

“Yes, evil!”

Genette shrugged. “Putting that aside, let us presume anyway that it is rare impulse. And so it may leave signs.”

“That someone hates Terminator? That someone is capable of killing worlds?”

“Yes. It’s not a common impulse. It may therefore stick out. And besides, it may be a political act, a kind of terrorism or war. It may be meant to convey some message, or force some action. So we can follow it that way.”

Swan felt her stomach clenching. “Damn. I mean—there’s never been a, a war in space. We’ve managed without them.”

“Until now.”

That gave her pause. For a generation at least there had been warnings from people all over the system that the conflicts between Earth and Mars could lead to war, or that Earth’s writhing problems were going to drag everyone down with them. Little wars and terrorist attacks and sabotages had never entirely disappeared on poor Earth, and Swan had sometimes thought that diplomats played on the notion that Earth’s discord might spread, in order to boost their own prestige, their own budgets. Diplomacy as necessary peacemaking in a system on the brink—it had been very convenient for them. But what if it turned out to be true?

She said, “I guess I thought spacers knew enough to avoid all that. That once we got out here we would do better. Be better.”

“Don’t be a fool,” the inspector said crisply.

Swan gritted her teeth. After an intense struggle for self-control she said, “But it could be some psychopath. Someone who has lost their mind and is killing just because they can.”

“There are those too,” Genette agreed. “And if one of them got hold of a qube—”

“But anyone can get a qube!”

“Not at all. Not even everyone in space. They are tracked from the factories, and in theory are all located moment to moment. And whichever one was involved would have to be programmed for this, as I said. It would show in its own records what it had done.”

“Aren’t there unaffiliateds that are making qubes?”

“Well—maybe. Probably.”

“So how do we find it, or this person?”

“Or this group?”

“Yes, or nation, or world!”

Genette shrugged. “I want to talk to Wang again, because his qube is really powerful, and he also has the biggest data banks on the unaffiliateds. And also because it’s possible he was attacked by this same entity. But I admit I’m a little afraid to talk to his qube, because we’re seeing so many signs of qubes acting oddly. As if they have volition now, or in any case are being asked to do things unlike anything they’ve done before. Some qubes that we’ve been monitoring are now exchanging messages in an unprecedented way.”

“You mean they’re entangled with each other?”

“No. That seems to be truly impossible, because of decoherence issues. They use radio communication like anyone else, but the messages are encrypted internally at each end, using superposition as they do. So they are truly encrypted, even when we use our own qubes to try and break the codes. This is the reason why I want to keep these discussions out of the earshot of any and all qubes, for the time being. I don’t know which ones to trust.”

Swan nodded. “You’re like Alex in that.”

“That’s right. I used to talk to her about this, and we had the same opinion about this problem. I taught her some procedures to use. So, now I have to think about how to go forward here, and how I can best communicate with Wang and his superqube. Possibly the explanation for all this is even now stored in it, unrecognized because it hasn’t been asked to look for it. Because despite all the talk you hear of balkanization, we are still recording the history of the world down to the level of every person and qube. So to find this agent, we only need to read out the history of the solar system for the last several years, and it should be there.”

“Except for the unaffiliateds,” Swan pointed out.

“Well, yes, but Wang has most of them too.”

“But you don’t want his recording system to know you’re asking,” Swan said. “In case it’s the one doing all this.”

“Exactly.”

Swan never quite stopped feeling sick after that. Someone had meant to kill her city—and yet had missed hitting it directly, thus sparing its citizens, all but the ones who had died in the panic of the evacuation and that poor concert group, killed by the impact.

Was that right? She didn’t know what to make of that—that the impact had missed Terminator itself.

She ended up talking to Pauline about it. She had an idea that she wanted to check, and Pauline was the best way to do it. There she was, after all, her voice in Swan’s ear, and always hearing everything Swan said aloud. There was no way she wasn’t going to find out all about this, eventually.

So: “Pauline, do you know what Inspector Genette and I were talking about when I turned you off?”

“No.”

“Can you guess?”

“You might have been talking about the incident at Ygassdril, which you had just seen. This incident resembles the incident at Terminator in some features. If these were deliberate attacks, then whoever initiated them might have used a quantum computer to help them plot trajectories. If Inspector Jean Genette believed that quantum computers were involved, then the inspector might not want any quantum computers to hear details of the investigation. This would be similar to Alex’s efforts to keep some of her deliberations completely unwitnessed and unrecorded by any AIs, quantum or digital. The assumption seems to be that if quantum computers are in encrypted radio communication with each other, then they may be plotting activities detrimental to people.”

Just as she suspected: Pauline could deduce these things. No doubt many other qubes could too, including Genette’s own Passepartout, programmed in forensics and detection as it certainly must be. If-then, if-then, how many trillion times a second? It might resemble their chess-playing programs, which had proved themselves to be superhumanly good at that particular game. So it was a little bit futile to turn them off only for certain conversations.

Which meant that it was all right for her to say “Pauline, if someone had calculated the trajectory of an impactor to hit Terminator smack on and destroy it, but they forgot to include the relativistic precession of Mercury in their calculation and only used the classical calculus of orbital mechanics, how far would they miss by? Assume the impactor was launched from the asteroid belt a year earlier. Try a few different launch points and trajectory courses and times, both with and without the relativity equations for the precession.”

Pauline said, “The precession of Mercury is 5603.24 arc seconds per Julian century, but the portion of that caused by the curvature of space-time as described by general relativity is 42.98 arc seconds per century. Any trajectory a year in duration, plotted without that factored in, would therefore miss by 13.39 kilometers.”

“Which is about what happened,” Swan said, feeling sick again.

Pauline said, “Being a precession, the miss should have been to the east of the city, not the west.”

“Oh,” Swan said. “Well, then…” She didn’t know what to make of it.

Pauline said, “Ordinary orbital mechanics programs for inner planet transport routes routinely include general relativity as a matter of course. It is not necessary to remember to add the relativity equations. If, however, someone who did not know that tried to program a trajectory for an impact without using open-source templates, then they might have added the relativity equations to a situation where they were already being used. And thus, if targeting the city directly, they would create an error of 13.39 kilometers to the west.”