Текст книги "To Understanding of Macroeconomу of State and World"
Автор книги: (IP of the USSR) Internal Predictor of the USSR
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Accordingly, the monetary unit backing standard, whether it is a precious metal coin or a nominal means of payment, in metrological terms, has to connect (one to one) the production spectrum in energy units and the aggregate nominal paying capacity of the society that defines the nominal price scale.
The production spectrum in energy units represents the amount of electric power produced for a year[9]. The consumption of goods produced by all the sectors in financial terms is given by such statistical indicators as the aggregate number of purchases and sales, their distribution by the seasons of the year, by specialized markets, by regions as well as the their costs. The aggregate cost of the deals is the annual volume of trade in nominal values, i.e. the turnover volume, or the turnover volume of means of payment.
If, firstly, there are no short-term (for an annual scale) structural redistribution of production and consumption needs due to natural disasters, severe technogenous catastrophes, wars, silly economic reforms, etc., and, secondly, the system of production and consumption performs steadily, then the structure of the annual exchange of goods for the past several years will change smoothly, i.e. with no sharp hikes or drops.
This is a balancing mode of autoregulation of the production-and-consumption system of the society. The taskof a macroeconomic management is to maintain that balance. That is the normal mode of macroeconomic performance.
For normal modes, the value of the niminal volume of trade – the volume of means of payment turnover, is mainly dependent on, among other factors, by the value of an APPARENT instantaneous aggregate nominal paying capacity of the society, because an aggregate seller will squeeze out of a buyer that really needs a particular item of goods everything that he is able to pay. That value exceeds the factual apparent instantaneous aggregate nominal paying capacity of the society (the underlined words are terms), equal to the amount of means of payment in circulation. The apparent instantaneous aggregate nominal paying capacity of the society is given by a sum of two components: S+K.
S – stands for the aggregate sum of nominals of means of payment that the would-be buyers possess (factual nominal paying capacity);
K – stands for the credits lent (including repeated lending), ignoring the debt rate of the society as a whole to the usurers.
The apparent instantaneous aggregate nominal paying capacity exceeds the sum of nominal values of the means of payment S in circulation, for bank depositors calculate their payment capacities considering the sums on their bank accounts that have already served as sources of lending, and considering which the borrowers evaluate their apparent payment capacities.
It is the value of ( S+K ) that at any time withstands all the mass of commodities on sale and represents the maximum nominal evaluation of its cost.
In the trade turnover of the xsociety, it distributes this way or another between the deals that accompany production and consumption exchange of goods, and the deals on various speculative markets (stocks, antiques, currency, bonds etc.), which mostly satisfy parasite disposition of some part of the population to derive their incomes from incomes in antiphase with the fluctuations of prices for speculative goods.
The of means of payment satisfies the equation:
«energy backing standard» =
= ( S+K ) / «potential of energy» (1)
It follows from (1), that
S+K =«energy backing standard» Ч
Ч « potential of energy » (2)
The energy backing standard is the proportionality factor, whose role in the system of macroeconomic management is to control the correspondence of values of instantaneous aggregate nominal paying capacity and real (or possible – in case of planning tasks) elecric power production volume, representing (in energy terms) real (or possible) production spectrum.
The energy backing function in the macroeconomic management system corresponds an assumption that the statistical data to do with the deals, which define the nominal value of means of payment circulation changes slowly from year to year, so such changes must be factored out and contracted. For ‘potential of energy’ we may use either the annual electric power output, or the aggregate power of the power-stations. For macroeconomic systems that are not all-sufficient in power generation, ‘potential of energy’ will stand for the volume of electric power imports.
Credit-and-finance system can steadily follow the exchange of goods in the society (and, in particular, in production sector), if S+K, —and energy backing of means of payment respectively, were changing over the time span we are interested in; they grew or drop quite slowly or oscillate within a narrow value band.
Most financial, production and consumer troubles to do with the processes at the macrolevel of economy of a society are the consequences of direct and indirect manipulations with the apparent instantaneous aggregate nominal paying capacity( S+K ) due to ill-will or ignorance. That leads to changes in energy-backing standard of means of payment on a scale of production-consumption system as a whole and on a scale of its functionally specialized components. From historical point of view, ignorance really acts as just a tool of the back-door ill-will: evil is done by fools and ignoramuses who are either explicitly corrupt or suffering from a superiority complex.
The troubles emerge in the following way. A change in ( S+K ), that is an increment D( S+K ), represents a particular volume of issued means of payment (or, vice versa, the demonetization volume), or a change in the volume of money lent. The impact on the credit-and-finance system can be described as pulse and address by which we mean that the emission or credit pulse produces an instant change in the nominal paying capacity of some (not all) would-be buyers or some particular groups.
Having made an instant change in the energy-based standard of means of payment, the pulse D( S+K ) generates a wave of changes in nominal paying capacity, which spreads throughout the trading network in the direction, opposite to the direction of exchange of goods, as the nominal paying capacity of the pulse is getting involved into currency circulation. The wave of changes in nominal paying capacity movement through the money circulation channels, in turn, produces some changes in nominal prices for the corresponding product line groups, pressed by hikes and drops in nominal effectual demand for them.
Supposing the initial pulse D( S+K ) was targeted at the production sector, the wave of changes in nominal paying capacity, by means of salaries and incomes of entrepreneurs, will pours out of the production sector onto consumer-items market, so a process of redistribution of nominal effectual demand by the end-product groups. It produces changes in market conditions, which spread all over the sectors, and some time later we can see secondary changes in the intersectoral proportions of profitability and manufacturing indicators used in natural accounting (the initial change makes the wave move through the industrial sector if the initial pulse was inward).
The pulse D( S+K ) produces irreversible transformations of nominal prices, which makes this case different for seasonal fluctuations of paying capacities of different groups of would-be buyers, and of price fluctuations.
When the pulse D( S+K ) ‘spreads’ over a long time span, the wave of changes in prices becomes invisible against the background of heterogeneous price fluctuations; but anyway, there is a slow general change in price scale, which leads to changes in purchasing power of a monetary unit no every single market.
Herein, the changes in purchasing power of people’s incomes and spendings have the top priority for macroeconomics and politics: “A signature of an official” Ю the growth in means of payment volume outgoing the growth rate of production energy backing Ю a loss of purchasing power of incomes and a possible decay of microeconomics into a number of production-wise insolvent pieces of the economics Ю a loss of work motivation and a possible economic crisis” That algorithm was launched in 1991 by Ye. T. Gaydar and it was supported by all the governments until the end of 1999[10].
Obviously, all that those people were taught at school and universities was economics for ‘clerks’. Well, everybody was taught, but they were the ‘best students’. We wonder what have the members of the Economic Department of the former Academy of Science (now Russian Academy of Science) and the less celebrated scientists, been thinking of in for several decades?
When the wave D( S+K ) goes through the production sector, not only does it change the nominal profitability of the businesses, but it also changes the purchasing capacity of their nominal current assets. If the changes in financial indicators of businesses (or sectors) generated by the wave D( S+K ) exceed some limits (which are different for different sectors), then the purchasing power of current assets of one group of businesses (sectors) will become excessive in comparison with their production facilities (when the natural output is calculated) and technologically and economically possible pace of reconstruction and capacity growth, whereas the purchasing power of current assets of the other group of businesses (sectors) will become insufficient.
All the sectors are linked by a technology-wise system of ratios of standard mutual supplies volumes for production needs in each sector for the purpose of its further development. So, if there are supercritical sector disproportions between purchasing power of current assets and production facilities in their natural expressions, the credit-and0finance system loses its capability to assemble a number of microeconomics into a single macroeconomics, whose performance is stable.
The immediate cause of that course of events at a microlevel is that some businesses cannot afford to purchase (at drastically changing prices [in comparison with the turnover rate of their capital stock per value]) the items they need for their production, ant the others cannot sell (without making losses, i.e. in order to save the purchasing power of their current assets) their output.
Sectors with long lasting (in comparison with the decay time of the pulse D( S+K )) production cycles (among which are industrial and residential construction, shipbuilding, agriculture, etyc.), are most sensitive to such kind of macroeconomic impact, due to a slow response to rapid (in comparison with the duration of their production cycles) changes in the market climate, because their current assets are bound in incomplete projects.
The immediate cause of the financial collapse of such ‘slow’ sectors at a microlevel is that their current assets are bound in incomplete projects, in the output that the customers do not need unless it is complete. And the rapid (in comparison with the duration of the production cycles) changes in nominal price-list caused by the wave D( S+K ) movement, can create a situation when the customer is unable to pay for the job done, or when the purchasing power of their current assets, gained as a result of the sales of their output during previous cycles of the wave D( S+K ) movement, and a s a result of selling the currently produced output at pre-arranged prices, will not be sufficient to continue and support the further production or for the sector development purposes.
The above description of the wave D( S+K ) movement can be strictly proven with the use of mathematics by performing the input-output study in a value form.
The only type of businesses that can flourish in such economic environment are the ones with the fast turnover of capital, and in the first pace those which satisfy degradation-parasite needs spectrum. It happens due to the fact that excessive (comparing to demographically defined wants) nominal effectual demand of some groups of population and the demand of morally damaged groups can only take a shape of satisfaction of degradation-parasite needs, in case a fall in the production spectrum takes place.
Redistribution of apparent instantaneous aggregate nominal paying capacity( S+K ) between the ‘real sector’ markets and parasite speculative markets has a similar effect on the production-consumption exchange . The redistribution of the nominal paying capacity entails the changes in monetary unit energy-backing standard in ‘real sector’ and in the sector of mass consumption.
This is one of the reasons why speculative markets have to be exterminated whenever occasion serves, to prevent the very possibility of the following scenario to be implemented: ‘mass psychosis of already inane stock exchange speculators Ю the collapse of credit-and-finance system as means of macroeconomic assembling.’
In comparison with the economy destruction mechanism caused by nominal paying capacity changes and redistributing we have just described, the energy-backing standard of means of payment is not only the indicator of possible future troubles in money circulation and in production and consumption exchange of goods, but it is also the best indicator and tool of control at the macrolevel. That makes it different from the previously used ‘gold standard.’
Statehood can pursue different policy regarding energy backing standard. It may increase the value of ( S+K ) in direct ratio to the growth rate of the launching of new power station facilities.
It is possible to keep ( S+K ) constant or make it grow (the growth should be a bit retarded in comparison with the growth rate of electric power supplies to the production sector.) In that case the purchasing capacity of a monetary unit will grow on each market, which will be observed as a steady price decrease and the welfare growth of all the groups of society (but not only those groups of population whose nominal incomes and savings are excessive in comparison with demographically determined needs.) Herein, the pay policy must prevent the population from receiving incomes that are excessive in comparison with satisfaction of demographically determined needs (anyway, as soon as a family has purchased a place to live and the means of transport, corresponding to the standards of demographic sufficiency, their incomes, which can be used for personal consumption {not for production or charity purposes} should be limited)
That mode of credit-and finance system performance used to be called ‘Stalin’s policy of planned reduction of prices’. And it is the mode that is most preferable for the majority of population, for those who are ready to work honestly in their profession, those who do not want to change place of work seeking for ‘big money’ or for a possibility to stick like a leech to the ever-living source of unearned incomes.
The factor which prevents the transition of the system into the above mode of performance is cost of borrowing.
Loan itself is the means of quick adjustment of nominal effectual demand to the output supply spectrum (at set prices). When the production-consumption exchange of goods is stable, and when credit-and-finance system performance is steady, the fluctuations in K/(S+K) are mainly seasonal and they change insignificantly for a number of annual production cycles[11]. That is why in succession of a number of annual production cycles interest-free crediting itself does not have any effect on pricing and standard of price.
However, if lending includes interest rate, the interest rate causes:
the outgrowth of nominal prices in comparison with the growth of price-adjusted [12]production spectrum , because the price of the output includes the need to return the loan and the interest.
the irreversible flow of nominal paying capacity of the society from the society to a corporation of usurers, which, when the usurers are free to operate, generates high monopoly purchasing capacity, which an unideaed society cannot fight back.
The two above factors, generated by interest, lead to the loss of purchasing power of the society as a whole, which slows down and stops the sale of the output (regardless its quality and demand for it) and can make credit-and-finance system loose the ability to assemble numerous microeconomies into a single macroeconomy. In that case a particular amount of unreturned interest-generated debt can emerge in a society; that debt will be distributed among all physical and corporate bodies, including a faction of the least happy usurers.
The amount of unreturnable debt may be discharged only by additional issuing of means of payment. In the first case, when usury is free, interest rates, being the vehicle of irreversible price growth, force the state to lower the energy backed monetary unit standard. Such kind of emission always objected to, However, if we refuse from doing so, we will turn the society and its production-and-consumption system into a financial slave of the corporations, because it has been strangled by designedly unreturnable debts and has to work for free to cover the debts, and its consumption is limited by bloodsucking creditors.
That is exactly what happened in Russia in the course of reforms, so all the reforms, until the end of 199, have been sabotage, war waged on the peoples of the USSR and Russia with the use of 4th priority means, supported by the means of the 3rd priority (spreading nonsense theories concerning the causes and mechanisms of the social and economic crisis that has been lasting for several decades now.)
The above said has been strictly proven mathematically by performing the input-output study in a value form.
The distinction in kind between the ‘tax pressure’ of statehood and usury vampirism is following: as soon as currency circulation had emerged,
taxes take from manufacturers some of his real output in value form; if that share is not stolen, it is used for reasons of state. If the state expresses the interests of the overwhelming majority of honestly working population, then everything that had been taken from the society as taxes, is returned to the society in the form of diversified state-provided personal social security. In other words, in such a state the ‘pressure of taxation’ oppresses no one, for everything taken off in a form of taxation comes back to the same society in some way.
usury sucks off the society a set share of the output (in the value form), which has always been higher that a useful effect achieved as the result of the loan. Consequently, the society becomes a slave of a supranational corporation of bloodsuckers – racist usurers.
The fact that mass-media, numerous political blabbers, including the party leaders[13],, blow the fire of hatred to ‘pressure of taxation,’ keeping silent when it comes to usury vampirism, univocally shows to whom they serve and against whom they do so.
If we are going to get rid of the crisis and move to the development of Russia with no crisis, we need an article of the Constitution, which will make put a ban on participation of a Russian party (Russia’s statehood, private or legal entities) in any kind of external and internal deals connected with lending at interest in all possible forms. Those who break the law must be considered traitors to Motherland, and their crime must be seen as a crime against humanity. That declaration must be proclaimed at the UNO.
Interest rate – ‘free’ price of credit, is a component of a price-list base, not being a result of work or free goods. The interest rate is set for the states and regions by wheeler-dealers from a supranational usurer corporation that usurped banking; so interest rate does not express free balance between supply and demand for loans. Until usury (including its banking shapes) is considered by Law as a sector of private enterprise, the state does not have a statutory motive to reason the ban on usury. If a state proclaims its own monopoly right to administer prices of price-list bases, the issue of a ban on lending at interest will be solved in accordance with the Law.
This is neither a ban on banking activities, nor destruction of payment and clearing infrastructure of society. Every bank – state bank, central bank, each commercial bank, – has to stop being a ‘state farm’ of usurers, as it is now; it has to become an investment fund which provides the structural reconstruction of diversified production-and-consumption system of the society and the development of the production capacities of the sectors. Their only incomes, which will be used for replenishment of their loan resources, will come from their share of profits made in the ‘real sector’ of economy as a result of implementation of socially useful projects designed by their ‘brain trusts’. The banks whose ‘brain trusts’ are unable to perform that function do not have a right to exist. So, if some banks will not manage to restructure themselves in order to offer interest-free loans and crash, it will be perfect, because we will have fewer useless mouths to be fed.
In the system of interest-free crediting, the lowering of electric energy tariffs and simultaneous build-up of energy standard, will unbar the pass to lowering non-nominal values on the final product market as the needs of the society will be satisfied all over the demographically determined spectrum of needs and to rooting out the degradation-parasite spectrum of needs.
Taxation and subsidy policy has to maintain the purchasing power in sectors, regions at a ratio which is necessary for stable performance of the market mechanism of distribution of the output, in accordance with the demographically defined plan of social and economic development of the state and the society.
2.4 Rates of exchange: relative and absolute
There is no use in considering the issue of national monetary (payment) units if we do not take into consideration the global exchange of goods, between regional (including the regions which are state territories) production-and-consumption systems.
The global production-and-consumption exchange of goods in his existing shape is manageable. Global management of the exchange has its roots in ill will, it is performed in the form of Biblical-Talmudic project and implements the policy of ‘how many of those bastards’ they need and how to keep their bodies and souls together at a minimum subsistence level so that the ‘real people’ were always very well off.
Limits of production-and-consumption growth are put with a time lag, which leads to catastrophic consequences, while the restriction volume is insufficient[14].
Global management of production-and-consumption exchange of goods is based on:
supranational corporate racial monopoly for usury;
management of parasite turnover of stock exchanges, currency exchanges and, partly, commodity exchanges.
As a result, we can see rapid changes in energy backing of monetary unit, which play the role of world means of payment (nowadays, as yet, it is US dollar), globally, regionally, with all the collateral damaging consequences that we discussed in the previous chapter.
That management is a part of global policy, so if we want to protect ourselves from its malicious effect on the regional scale, we will need to have an alternative global policy, efficiently performed with the help of all the means of management from 1st to 5th priority. It is necessary that the conditions, which would eliminate the possibility of a new world war outbreak, were created by means of 6th priority.
When creating a system of global production-and-consumption exchange of goods between countries and regions, we will inevitably have to use a mean of payment playing a role of world money. It may be a specially introduced unit (like ‘euro’), or a monetary unit a particular country (nowadays it is a dollar, but it used to be a pound of sterling, etc.).
Global management of purchasing capacity in the regions and its distribution by the regions and countries will be inevitable. In the previous chapter, we discussed the purchasing capacity management by the emission volume, price-list base (energy tariffs, interest rate) and by formation of income statistics (including the value of hour rate). Tools and ways of purchasing capacity management on the whole are the same; however, the features of the global management to do with world monetary unit and monetary units of individual nations has a two-step structure, which distinguishes the world monetary unit from other units.
Firstly, this is the management of energy supply standard of the dominating world means of payment (before the rest of circulation indicators), which is achieved by control of its issuing and exporting from the issuing state.
If the process is managed successfully, the purchasing power of the monetary unit on all the markets should (at the most) grow as the time passes by, and (at least) decrease slower than the purchasing capacity of other monetary units. That feature, intentionally supported over long time spans, makes it preferable as a dominating world means of payment in comparison with the rest of monetary units.
Secondly, it is management of purchasing power of monetary units of other countries, which defines their rates of exchange to the world unit of payment.
Since the functions are separated in such a way, the global credit-and-finance system, which acts on the basis of a world monetary unit, performs more or less efficiently the function of assembling the global economy from a variety of regional (national) macroeconomies. And the state-run credit-and-finance systems, which work on the basis of their national units of payment, more or less efficiently perform the procedure of assembling national economies, which are regarded as ‘microeconomies’ in comparison with the global macroeconomy.
It follows as a logical consequence that the direct internal author of the fall of ruble exchange rate on August,17, 1998, was the government of V.S. Chernimyrdin, not V.S. Kiriyenko.
In January, 1988, in Davos, V.S. Chernimyrdin announced the ‘we have to raise the Central Bank refinancing rate up to 46%’ (before it came up to 21%, which was not less harmful). Six months later the usurers from the Central Bank, on order of the Russian government increased the knowingly nonreimbursable debt, which annihilated a part of ruble’s purchasing capacity, so the ruble exchange rates fell down. The responsibility was passed onto S.V.Kiriyenko, who allegedly acted wrongly; but after a usury bounce allowed by the government of V.S. Chernomyrdin, whatever actions within the frames of economics for ‘clerks’ were done, they inevitably led to crisis.
We just wonder if V.S. Chernomyrdin is an intellectual pervert, whose economic views are perverted by economic theories for ‘clerks’, or there was a direct dictate in Davos, which he submitted to, or both assumptions are true.
Relative exchange rates in global exchange of goods are the most generalized expression of mutual claim balance for the trade parties of two nations, each of which is trying to cover, on the account of the other party, a component of needs spectrum that is produced insufficiently. This statement is a commonplace. However, when we consider al possible pairs of such commonplaces, we can ask a question: ‘how do you express an absolute rate of exchange of means of payment?’
Now we can give the answer to that question.
An absolute rate of exchange of means of payment is the standard of its energy backing, realized in a particular (of global importance) concept of accessible energy potential management in its external and internal production-and-consumption exchange of goods, when a particular quality level is achieved (in accordance with the concept chosen).
The limitation printed in italics does not let us define the relative exchange rates unambiguously, as a value of energy backing standard supported by state by means of macroeconomic management.
But it allows us to understand that the behaviour of a conceptually indefinite management (i.e. an attempt to implement two mutually exclusive concepts within the same society) dooms the state to a low exchange rate of its currency.
For Russia, it means that there is a need to decide:
if the Russians are going to become slaves, whose consumption welfare will be determined by the arbitrariness of masters of the Biblical-Talmudic project (in the past, that ideal aim used to be called ‘capitalism’, bourgeois democracy, and now it is called ‘the civil society’), like in ‘advanced’ European countries and in America, and in their former colonies;
or if there will be neither slaves, nor slave-holders, but humanity instead, and all the human needs of each person separately and all people together will be satisfied in a guaranteed way in the succession of generations (in the past it used to be called ‘communism’, however the ruling elites prevented it from being built, for the ruling elites were enslaved by their own degradation-parasite spectrum of needs. They distorted the people’s ideal of communism and the work of its implementation in everyday life by means of their policy.
The person who makes a choice of one of the two mentioned above, mutually exclusive concepts of life of the humankind on the Earth, should know that the Russians are from the point of view of a slave-holder) an ignoble, pitchy, and inutile slave, who is always ready to stab his lord in the back or burn him together with his relatives in his house.
A Russian slave cannot be entrusted anything. Whatever he does, he will do it lousy, impermissibly low quality, and the materials and tools will be stolen.
As a result of that morally-psychological feature of the Russians of different ethnical background, it will never be possible to build ‘capitalism’ or ‘civil society’ in Russia and in the nations that have been under the rule of Russian civilization. As a concomitant circumstance, the absolute rate of exchange of ruble, which represents the management quality correspondingly to the implemented (in practical policy) concept of slavery establishing, will always drop, and as a result, the relative exchange rate of ruble will drop as well.